Whether Weathermen Were Wrong...

There are few certain things in this world: the inevitability of bad hair days, the slow unrelenting march of age and time, and the death of a Sean Bean character. Yet, there is much more that is uncertain: stock prices, the number of socks that will emerge from the dryer, and, of course, the weather. Let's spend a few minutes dwelling on that last one, because despite the insistence of a certain doomed Sean Bean character, winter doesn't always come. That was proven on Tuesday when the New York area found itself bracing for a massive hurricane of icy death that never quite panned out.

Sure, we got a few inches, but growing up in the Northeast those are the kind of numbers you find yourself laughing at as your car skids slowly to work in the morning. What we were promised was a winter storm so impressive that it would bury us under feet and feet of snow. Curfews were enacted across New York and New Jersey. Trains, buses, and subways were shutdown. States of Emergencies were called. Government offices were closed, and grocery stores couldn't have been ransacked harder if there was a horde of ice zombies coming. I, personally, got up at 5:30 am to race the storm home from Maryland... Then it started snowing... Then it stopped and everyone emerged from their cocoons of blankets and Netflix to see that nothing had happened... Then a lot of people got mad.

Did you know that the 1977 revision of the Geneva Convention prohibits the weaponizing of weather? I know, it sounds like a plot cooked up by Cobra Commander, but did you also know that the United States of America successfully used weaponized weather during the Vietnam War? Operation Popeye used cloud seeding over Vietnam to increase the rainy season by thirty percent, in order to hinder troop and vehicle movements. Yet, seeding clouds is not the only way to use the weather as a weapon, and I have been hearing many people over the past few days call the false reporting of meteorologists, nothing short of criminal.

FYI, this is also against the Geneva Convention.

"Those weather-hacks misled us! The lied to us! We all put our trust in them and this time they used their power as a weapon to shutdown one of the world's largest and most densely populated metropolitan areas. New York City, New Jersey, and Philadelphia all came to a grinding halt because of the false promises of meteorologists and their scary, albeit colorful, maps of doom. They didn't even apologize, (except for the ones that did!) They told us falsehoods! They mildly inconvenienced us and damn them, they gave me a day off of work! Meteorologists may not be able to manipulate the weather, but they manipulate our feelings about the weather, and maybe its time we held them accountable.

"Under the Geneva Convention we should prosecute them as war criminals! Let's put them on trial in front of an international court. Let's send a message that we will not let our lives be dictated by people with names like Gretchen Storm and Sonny Day. I promise, no longer will the sadistic cackle of the dreaded Weatherman echo through the frozen halls of his Arctic Doppler Fortress. Huzzah! After all, what have they ever really done for us?"

...I mean aside from saving lives and preventing property damage. According to a 2013 World Bank Report, a fully staffed and equipped meteorological service saves an average of 23,000 lives a year and provides up to $30 billion a year in economic benefits. The real truth of this issue is that I think it is easy to hate on weathermen. Their jobs are based on speculation, and, in fairness, they are not right all the time. In fact, if you are looking for an interesting piece on the accuracy of weather forecasting I suggest you check out the Freakonomics site, which basically maps out the accuracy of weathermen in Kansas City over their seven day forecast. Spoiler: They are not 100% accurate, but that doesn't make what they do is any less difficult or valuable.

Granted, that even after the storm proved to be bust many stations kept their reporting up, as if we really were under attack by the love child of Elsa and Mr. Freeze, but that has more to do with the news stations than the actual meteorologists. If Fox News has taught us anything it is that scaring people is a surefire way to get good ratings, and maybe there were a few people out there who were more willing to fudge the numbers in one direction if it meant people would watch, but that was not the majority. If anyone is to blame, we are. Because, when you really think about it, meteorologists are a lot like the weather they report. We really don't pay attention to them till we need to, and even then its usually only in a negative way, Maybe that's part of the reason why sometimes they get a little overly excited about bad weather, in the same way firefighters get a little too excited about a structure fire. Only in catastrophe do they really get their chance to shine.

"I'm wearing camouflage, because... Did you see what
happened to that last dog?"

Unfortunately, this time their excitement led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars by state and local businesses who listened to the dire warnings of weathermen and weather-women as they gazed into their crystal balls, but I don't mean to sound flippant (that just usually happens naturally).  I have a lot of respect for the people entrusted to predict the movements of nature. Weather forecasting is a science, but it is not an exact one. There are still many mysteries on why weather behaves the way it does, and what we get as a forecast is usually the best possible data as interpreted by local and national meteorologists. That means they are using their models and scientific understanding of weather behavior to give us their best estimate as to where a storm system will be heading and what conditions will lead to one forming in the first place. It also doesn't help that the American National Weather Service is woefully underfunded and understaffed.

In the past five years the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) budget has stayed relatively flat, despite significant budgetary increases for other federal departments. Even worse the National Weather Service has suffered from some 200-odd labor shortages, finding themselves without the money to hire and retain key meteorologists, even in critical areas such as Tornado Alley where accurate weather predictions help to save thousands of lives annually. This is trouble for local weathermen who get their core data from the National Weather Service, which helps them make their predictions. This severe underfunding is also one of the main reasons why the European weather agency, (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) typically produces more accurate weather models than the US National Weather Service. They have better equipment with faster computing power

All of this leads back to the super storm of snow that was supposed to hit New York this past week. Many weather agencies went with the European model for the storm, due to its track record of better accuracy, and for whatever reason, this time the European model was wrong and the American model, (which predicted that the storm would miss the city,) was actually correct. That's how bad it has gotten for the US National Weather Service. Even when they're right, the local agencies don't believe them. It's like their the weathermen of weathermen.

On the plus side, the development of hover technology is
coming along in time for Marty McFly's arrival this year.

The United States needs an updated weather model, proper funding, modern equipment, and proper staffing. Maybe if the weather could be used as a weapon of war there would be more funding available, but right now it is a low priority on the national budget. Yet, it shouldn't be. The National Weather Service does more than tell us whether to take an umbrella or sunscreen. Poor and improper weather forecasts, whether negative or positive, affects millions of American and billions of dollars worth of industry and infrastructure. Everything from mass transit to national trucking industries are affected by the weather. 

So yes, this time the weathermen got it wrong, but that doesn't mean they are always wrong or that they are criminals. Human beings have a tendency to want to kill the messenger, but the general public needs to reevaluate how we think about the weather and those who report it. With changing climates, global warming, and a myriad of other factors, the job of meteorologists gets harder and more important every year. That's why they need our support. So maybe with a bit of work, a bit more money, and a little faith, next time it will be different, (yes, there will be a next time,) because the weather can be a weapon, but not one controlled by humans. Still, it is no less dangerous. Weathermen and weather-women are the ones trying to keep us safe and prepare us for what is to come, because if we aren't prepared then that would be the real crime.