A Worthless Futures

Side Prediction: Paper money will be as underrated as
Thomas F. Wilson's acting career after Back to the Future.
(Sorry TFW, I enjoy your voice-over work.)

In my previous blog I covered the topic of overpaid, under-talented celebrities and how their home sex tapes will diminish in value as the years progress. Granted, it probably was not my best post, because, let's face it, I really just wanted a venue to rant on the excesses and stupidity I see everyday when I turn on the TV (I'm looking at you NBC,) but that's all in the past, or the future, or whatever. Let's move on...

Right now I want to talk about something of real value which will lose all meaning as we springboard our way into the unknowable future, money. Of course, this leads me to my next point...


 

PREDICTION 3. THE ENLIGHTENED ECONOMY

Before I launch into a complicated discussion of inflation, supply & demand, and other such explanations that I could expertly talk about (if I had bothered to get an economics degree, or even a business degree of any type... I have an MA in Comparative Literature...) let us first look at how the economy works. From my understanding, each year prices continue to increase in all sectors of life. For example, one-ounce of gold in 1999 cost: $279.00, while its current price is now listed at: $1,106.00, (I should have gotten a jeweler's degree;) a Slurpee from 7-11 cost only: $0.99, and now it costs: $2.12 (a 114.14% increase for flavored-slush ice;) a comic book cost: $1.99, which now costs: $3.99; and I won't even go into the prices of gasoline and movie tickets. To find out more comparisons you should check out this Daily Finance article.

Basically, the point I am trying to make is that crap is expensive and it ain't getting cheaper... unless it's technology. For example in 1989, a VCR cost: $229.00, in 1999 it cost: $149.00, and in 2012, I just found one on Amazon for: $45.00. I know you're saying, That's not relevant, no one uses VCR's anymore? ...Shut-up, you sound stupid... The real truth is that technology prices still come down even as technology itself improves. For a more complicated explanation of that you can refer to this article from The Big Picture. For a more simplified explanation refer to the infograph I posted below courtesy of Jesus Freak.

So, if you will take a trip down slippery slope lane with me for a moment, let s look at where our world is heading. We are living in a world where prices of technology shrink even while prices of everything else continue to grow. One day we could, potentially, face a world where it is cheaper to buy an iPod than a gallon of milk. In the next ten years, the price of a microchip is projected to be equal to less than 1-cent of US currency. This alone has the potential to turn our economy on its head and launch an explosion of technological innovation the likes of which humanity has not seen since Cobra invented the Weather Dominator back in the 1980's, but exactly how will this effect our economy?

To answer that I want to turn to one of my favorite future societies, Star Trek, (yeah just get over it and keep reading,) and the vision for the future it has set. The Federation is an interplanetary government that for all intents and purposes has no established economy, or has, as some call it, an Enlightened Economy. Now, not a lot is said on how or why this came about, but we are left to believe that it is a result of the evolution of humanity and its shifting priorities from greed to scientific interests, the advancement of technology, and the Communist sympathies of Gene Roddenberry.

As much as I would like to examine the first reason, my argument would eat up the rest of this article, (so I'll save it for another time,) and let's move onto the second reason, the advancement of technology. The fictional universe of Star Trek has these wonderful little devices called, replicators. They are most commonly seen in the TV show being used to materialize chocolate sundaes, Klingon coffee, or hot Earl Grey tea out of nothingness. In other words, it creates food out of thin air by assembling the proper molecules and compounds in an predetermined order and pattern similar to that of an actual ice cream sundae, bowl, spoon, cherry, and everything. When you are done with the meal you simply put your dirty dishes in the machine, dematerializes the molecular structure of your leftovers, and they get stored to be broken down and used again in the creation of your next meal. This is recycling at its finest. More to the point any discarded waste, (including actual human waste) could be recycled by the Enterprise to be used in the replicators. (Try not to think about that when you're enjoying that cup of morning replicated coffee.) So it's a fancy sandwich making machine? So what? I can hear you asking... I said, shut-up and don't make me tell you again... Replicators are mentioned elsewhere as being capable of creating anything from metal/plastic composite alloys, to dilithium crystal fuel, to stupid costumes that Data uses to play Sherlock Holmes.

A machine that can make anything, even if it could not produce complex or biological systems, would utterly destroy our current global economy. Supply and demand would become a concept as ancient as the dinosaurs or Jerry Seinfeld's stand-up. Did you ever notice how quickly world order breaks-down when someone creates a device that literally allows you materialize anything you might need: food, clothing, housing, minerals, fossil fuels, Slurpees? Thankfully, we do not have replicators, but the amazing thing about mankind is that once something is dreamed up, its hard to undream it. In other words, as long as the idea exists there is the potential for its creation.

But that would require a scientific understanding well beyond our current level. Its pure science fantasy? ...I warned you! Now I'm coming over there... *umph*... Hold still... This is for your own good... *thwack*... Now where was I?

This is most certainly a far off science dream, but maybe not as far as we might think. Currently, we have a little known device colloquially called a 3D printer. There are various types, older ones that used sand-like granular material and newer ones which use cords of plastic fibers, but the principles remain the same. In short, these machines can take a 3D image from a computer and literally print out the displayed structure by rapidly laying down thin layers of material over and over again, building the projected structure from the ground up. They are still considered a bit pricey for home use, but as I explained before that will change. So imagine the potential of these machines.

Side Prediction: In the future, IKEA's distinct style will be
known as Ancient Modern, but it will still be overpriced.

If you are missing a screw or even a leg from your IKEA coffee table, there is no need to go back to the store to complain. Just go onto the IKEA website and download the schematic to your product and print out the missing piece. Heck, for that matter why even go to the store in the first place. Instead of paying $49.99 for the non-assembled furniture, why not just pay $0.99 for the digital schematics and print all the pieces out yourself?  On second thought, why even pay that much? Just do what people have been doing since the dawn of the Internet and pirate the schematics off some illegal furniture sharing website? On third thought, why pirate a hackneyed piece of Swedish junk that everyone else on the block has, and why not just use your 3D printer program and make a coffee table of your own design?... As you can see IKEA might be in trouble in this near-future vision, as will other companies. On a personal level, why would I buy my future son any action-figures, when we can just use our creativity and make them; or just go onto one of the many free sharing art/sculpture sites that will surely crop up and use one of their free schematics. Within a few hours my son (or daughter) could have a full play set without ever setting foot in a Toys' R' Us. Best of all, when my child no longer has any interest in that particular set I could just melt the plastic back down to use as more fuel for my 3D printer. (Of course, it seems cruel to melt down a child's play toys, so I'll just have to melt down the unicorn statues I made for my wife for our 10th wedding anniversary instead, but you get my meaning.) The best part of this, is that technology not only gets cheaper, but it gets better. So maybe in the beginning it is just cheap plastic knickknacks and dorm furniture, but with improvements it could potentially become a printer for anything from computer parts to auto parts.

As you can see, even this small innovation could have dramatic economic ramifications. Currently, the plastics industry is the third largest manufacturing industry in the United States, with nearly 17,000 facilities in the country employing more than 1.4 million people. The widespread introduction of such a device could drastically affect this industry. Certainly demand for this special type of printer-plastic will increase, but the demand for other types would potentially decrease. I would not even want to hazard a guess what the overall impact would truly be, but I bet it would be a big one (for better or worse.) Certainly where the impact will be felt is in the industries that shape and sell already existing plastics. Industries like IKEA and its suppliers and manufacturers would feel a big hurt, as would toy companies, kitchenware manufacturers, and thousands of others that sell and produce plastic goods. Even some metal manufactures would probably see a decrease. Why use a metal stapler, when a plastic one works just fine and is cheaper to make?

More importantly a change like this would mean a shift in human thought. With the Industrial Revolution we moved from a farming society to a manufacturing one, and now with Personal Technology Coup (as I am calling it) we could again see our society shift to a thought process based less on interchangeable parts and more on personal/artistic manufacturing. Why should we pay for products that we can easily make ourselves, and even customize to our own needs and tastes? Once the PTC intellectual shift occurs, you are going to have a lot of people asking, "Why can't we do this with other things?," like metals, foodstuffs, and maybe even molecules.

Side Prediction: Apparently, even in the future, it will still
be a woman's job to make the coffee.

I'm not saying we are heading for a Star Trek world, as there are too many unanswered questions with the Federation model. I mean even that reality suggests that money has not been done away with completely and there is still at least some compensation similar to energy allotment units. However, their idea of an Enlightened Economy should give us pause. Replicators are not here yet and they won't be here for a long long long time, (If at all,) but we are already seeing possible predecessors for that device. So in the opinion of a Comp Lit major, that should be enough to make us start questioning where we are heading and what's waiting for us at the other end of the journey.

If technology continues progressing along lines and trends of personal comfort and individual design, it may only be a matter of time before we have a society that relies more on technology to meet its needs rather than big business. Granted we will still need to make money to purchase raw materials and other basic needs; and we will still need technicians to repair and maintain our devices (though even that will diminish as technological intuition also grows with each new generation,) but there is going to come a tipping point. Technology (in whatever form) is going to outpace the economy and we have to be ready for that moment. Once people lose the need to work (or at least work as much as they do,) we are going to need another reason to keep our society from breaking down.

This, of course, brings me to my next installment: TECHNOLOGY AND HUMANITY. Farewell, until we met again... Hello?.... *slap*... Wake up!... uh-oh... *casual whistling*... *receding footsteps*...